I have written before about how much of business results from unpredictable and random events. This is why following King Solomon’s advice is wise, “Invest in seven ventures, yes, in eight; you do not know what disaster may come upon the land. (Ecclesiastes 11:2, NIV)
For example in the 1800’s if the railroad went through an area, prosperity typically followed. Unless someone had inside information, you would not know what path the railroad would take. While you could research likely routes, you couldn’t confirm the final route. A business located at the right time and the right place would prosper. During the gold rush in California, businesses in places where prospectors gathered prospered greatly. Clearly they did not have advance knowledge about a gold strike that would create a boom.
Consider television programs. TV networks works spend millions of dollars in research to produce new shows. Many of them still fail to get viewership and are canceled. Sometimes these new shows make you wonder what the networks were thinking in the first place. However, many of the hits followed unpredictable paths that led to their success. It is true that careful research and effort go into planning these shows. However, the same effort goes into the shows that fail. My point is that one cannot predict accurately which shows will be successful and which will fail. If one had the skill to accurately predict a foolproof formula, they would earn millions of dollars each year in directing the efforts of each network.